Soldier in Maduro raid charged over $400k bet

 Soldier in Maduro raid charged over $400k bet

Maduro after his capture. XNY/Star Max/Getty Images

Federal prosecutors allege a US soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro took advantage of his access to classified information to win $400,000 by betting on the timing of Maduro’s ouster on Polymarket. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, was involved in the planning of the raid as of early December 2025, and placed 13 bets by the end of that month on the Venezuelan leader being out by Jan. 31, prosecutors claim. The US captured Maduro in early January. Van Dyke faces years in prison if convicted on the charges, which include unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, commodities fraud, and others. Unpredictable actors Though prediction markets have rules against market manipulation, Van Dyke is hardly the first accused of cheating on them. Polymarket’s rival Kalshi recently fined and suspended three candidates for betting on their own elections. And some try to make their own luck: Paris police are currently investigating suspected tampering with meteorological equipment after some recent wins in long-shot Polymarket bets on local weather. The French national weather service believes someone may have messed with a sensor at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle Airport, which the prediction market used to gauge the city’s temperature. Weather enthusiasts speculate that meddlers might’ve used a hairdryer to heat the air around the sensor, creating anomalous temperature swings that led to big payouts, Le Monde reported.